Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI -- by Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, Jason Abaluck, Kevin A. Bryan, Basil Halperin, Todd R. Jones, Connacher Murphy, Philip Trammell, Matt Reynolds, Dan Mayland, Ria Viswanathan, Ananaya Mittal, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro, Josh Rosenberg, Philip Tetlock
April 13, 2026
•NBER_Working_Papers•Moderate impact
[key points]
Key points
•Experts forecast substantial AI advances by 2030, with a notable impact on GDP growth.
•Under a 'rapid' AI progress scenario, experts forecast annualized GDP growth rising to around 4% and labor force participation rate falling to 55% by 2050.
•Experts favor targeted measures like worker retraining, while the general public supports broader interventions, including a job guarantee and universal basic income.
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Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI -- by Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, Jason Abaluck, Kevin A. Bryan, Basil Halperin, Todd R. Jones, Connacher Murphy, Philip Trammell, Matt Reynolds, Dan Mayland, Ria Viswanathan, Ananaya Mittal, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro, Josh Rosenberg, Philip Tetlock | Veille IA Shiftometer